{"id":17512,"date":"2020-06-30T10:38:34","date_gmt":"2020-06-30T17:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/?p=17512"},"modified":"2026-03-18T09:54:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T16:54:21","slug":"how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through\/","title":{"rendered":"How Often Do Contingent Offers Fall Through? Breaking Down the Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In real estate, an offer typically doesn\u2019t constitute a done deal. As a seller you want to know: how often do contingent offers fall through, and what are your odds of actually closing?<\/p>\n<p>As you measure your risk, here\u2019s what you should know. The majority of real estate offers contain contingencies, i.e., these \u201cif and only if\u201d clauses. A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals that in May 2020, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">76% of recent closed sales<\/a> contained purchase contingencies and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">9% of contracts<\/a> were terminated.<\/p>\n<p>The top reasons for contract termination recently include the buyer lost their job (28% \u2014 a higher-than-normal cause due to COVID-19), issues related to obtaining financing (21%), home inspections (17%), and other contingencies stated in the contract (7%).<\/p>\n<p>In previous months, however \u2014 prior to the impact of the pandemic \u2014\u00a0NAR has reported that terminated contracts only represented <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/real-estate-top-agent-insights-survey-q1-2019.pdf\">2%<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/what-happens-when-homebuyer-backs-out\/\">5%<\/a> of deals in a given month. So based on these numbers, you could reasonably conclude that a real estate contract has anywhere from a 1%-10% chance of falling out of contract, which means the odds of settlement are pretty good even in uncertain times. It\u2019s far more likely that your contract will get delayed and still close, NAR\u2019s data consistently shows.<\/p>\n<p>But any risk when you\u2019re selling your home is a bad thing.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17519\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17519\" style=\"width: 2512px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"471\" src=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-775x471.png\" class=\"attachment-content size-content\" alt=\"A survey explaining how often contingent offers fall through.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-775x471.png 775w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-768x467.png 768w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-1536x933.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-2048x1244.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-64x39.png 64w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-128x78.png 128w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-192x117.png 192w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-432x262.png 432w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-1920x1166.png 1920w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-500x304.png 500w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-800x486.png 800w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-6.07.25-PM-666x405.png 666w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17519\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><\/a> Source: (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">National Association of Realtors<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For an in-depth analysis of how often contingent offers fall through, we\u2019ve rounded up additional relevant stats and consulted top real estate agent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/agents\/liz-donnelly-ca-01458117\">Liz Donnelly<\/a>, who closes 17% more sales than the average agent in Ventura, CA. We\u2019ll explain the riskiest contingencies and what you can do as a seller to protect your sale.<\/p>\n<h2>The usual suspects: Contingencies to watch out for<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.inman.com\/real-estate-glossary\/contingency\/\">Contingencies<\/a> are legal clauses stating that certain requirements must be met for the contract to close. Contingencies mostly protect the buyer\u2019s interest, allowing them to exit the contract with their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-to-protect-earnest-money\/#:~:text=How%20much%20you%20can%20expect,can%20reach%20up%20to%2010%25.\">earnest money<\/a> if they cannot fulfill the stated requirements. Here\u2019s a rundown of the most common contingent offers and how likely they are to fall through:<\/p>\n<h3>Home sale contingency<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The deal:<\/b> The buyer\u2019s offer is contingent on them selling their home first.<\/li>\n<li><b>Risk level: <\/b>High<\/li>\n<li><b>Stats we know: <\/b>In May 2020, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">6% of offers<\/a> included a home sale contingency.<\/li>\n<li><b>Top real estate agent advice: <\/b>Avoid entering a contract with an offer that includes this contingency. There is a high risk that the contingent offer could fall through and jeopardize your sale. Donnelly explains:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cPicture yourself five days before your closing, when you&#8217;ve already paid $X amount of money for your moving van, or even moved everything out of your house. If that other house falls through, now you\u2019re in a situation where you need to start over, and you have a house that\u2019s not showing as well as it was when you first put it on the market because now you have little dents in your carpet from where your sofa was and the faded areas on the walls where the bed frames were.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Financing contingency<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The deal:<\/b> The buyer\u2019s offer is contingent on their lender approving their mortgage.<\/li>\n<li><b>Risk level: <\/b>Moderate<\/li>\n<li><b>Stats we know: <\/b>Financing issues caused <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">21% of terminated contracts<\/a> in May 2020. With<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers\"> 86% of recent buyers<\/a> \ufb01nancing their home purchase, on average \ufb01nancing around 88% of the purchase, financing contingencies are commonplace. Nonetheless, a financing contingency entails risk since even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/difference-between-mortgage-prequalification-preapproval\/\">pre-approved buyers<\/a> may fail a mortgage application if they lose a source of income or acquire debt after their initial application.<\/li>\n<li><b>Top real estate agent advice: <\/b>If you\u2019re considering an offer with a financing contingency, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/find-real-estate-agents-coronavirus\/\">reach out to the buyer\u2019s lender<\/a> to vet their financial strength before entering a contract. Your agent can ask the lender for details on the buyer\u2019s employment to better gauge the likelihood that the loan will approve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Inspection contingency<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The deal:<\/b> The buyer\u2019s offer is contingent on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/home-inspection-report\/\">home inspection report<\/a>. Buyers use the findings as leverage to negotiate a better deal, asking the seller to handle the repairs or include <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/home-inspection-before-closing\/\">repair credits<\/a> in the sale to cover the costs. If the seller refuses, the buyer can walk away with their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-to-protect-earnest-money\/#:~:text=How%20much%20you%20can%20expect,can%20reach%20up%20to%2010%25.\">earnest money<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><b>Risk level: <\/b>Moderate<\/li>\n<li><b>Stats we know: <\/b>In May, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">17% of contracts were terminated<\/a> due to home inspection and environmental issues. The home inspection contingency is expected in most offers, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ahit.com\/home-inspection-career-guide\/what-inspectors-should-know-about-home-inspection-contingencies\/\">95% of recently purchased homes<\/a> undergoing inspection. Since the average home purchased in 2019 was<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers\"> over 30 years old<\/a>, it\u2019s no surprise that the inspection is the culprit behind many contract terminations and delays.<\/li>\n<li><b>Top real estate agent advice: <\/b>To avoid tension and dispute in the final hour, conduct a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maxrealestateexposure.com\/pros-cons-pre-listing-home-inspection\/\">pre-listing home inspection<\/a> before you list your home. Costing on average <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homeadvisor.com\/cost\/inspectors-and-appraisers\/hire-a-home-inspector\/\">$278 &#8211; $399<\/a>, a pre-listing inspection allows you to discover issues and tackle repairs before buyers enter the picture. Even better, the completed inspection gives your buyers confidence in the condition of your home before they offer, empowering them to submit a higher offer than they would if they anticipated repairs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Appraisal contingency<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The deal:<\/b> The buyer\u2019s offer is contingent on the home appraising for an equal or higher value than the offer amount.<\/li>\n<li><b>Risk level: <\/b>Low to moderate<\/li>\n<li><b>Stats we know: <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/realtors-confidence-index\">6% of contracts<\/a> in May fell through from appraisal issues. According to Fannie Mae, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/investing\/091814\/fannie-mae-what-it-does-and-how-it-operates.asp\">largest backer<\/a> of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Fout-Panel-VI.pdf\">5% of home appraisals<\/a> come in low. HomeLight\u2019s recent research suggests a higher figure, with interviewed experts estimating that appraisals come in low <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-often-do-home-appraisals-come-in-low\/\">10% to 20% of the time<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><b>Top real estate agent advice: <\/b>Lenders will require an appraisal as a condition of financing. Still you can negotiate to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-appraisal-contingency\/\">remove the contingency<\/a> whether you\u2019re selling to a cash or a financed buyer, though the financed buyer incurs greater risk. If their appraisal comes in low, they\u2019ll need to make up the difference between their offer amount and the loan (covering the appraised value) in cash, or cancel the sale and forfeit their earnest money. You\u2019re most likely to negotiate waiving the appraisal if you\u2019re selling in an ultra-competitive market where buyers will do anything to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/11\/13\/bidding-wars-for-homes-hit-a-decade-low.html\">win a bidding war<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17520\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17520\" style=\"width: 700px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"666\" height=\"381\" src=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-666x381.png\" class=\"attachment-content size-content\" alt=\"A closed sign in front of a store.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-666x381.png 666w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-64x37.png 64w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-128x73.png 128w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-192x110.png 192w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-432x247.png 432w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed-500x286.png 500w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-closed.png 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17520\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><\/a> Source: (Masaaki Komori \/ Unsplash)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Market conditions increase the risk of some contingencies<\/h2>\n<p>In theory, you want to accept an offer with few contingencies \u2014 the fewer contingencies, the more likely the deal is to close. But the reality is, the market will largely dictate your ability to avoid contingent offers or not, not to mention influence the probability that a contingent offer will succeed or fall through.<\/p>\n<h3>Buyer\u2019s market: With fewer offers, sellers agree to more contingencies<\/h3>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/selling-in-a-buyers-market\/\">buyer\u2019s market<\/a>, the inventory of homes is high compared to the number of buyers. With fewer buyers offering on homes, you\u2019re more likely to deal with contingencies to secure a sale. Donnelly explains that in slow markets, even offers with home sale contingencies are desirable:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI remember feeling that way about two years ago when we weren\u2019t selling much and hit a low for three or four months. During that time, not knowing what the future brings, it\u2019s like, hey, a buyer&#8217;s a buyer, and maybe it&#8217;s going to take you a little bit longer to close this sale, but it may be something you want to look into.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Seller\u2019s market: Expect more offers with fewer contingencies<\/h3>\n<p>In a hot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/2020-real-estate-market-trends\/\">seller\u2019s market<\/a> where the buyer pool greatly exceeds the inventory of homes for sale, buyers may cut contingencies out of their offer to compete for the limited housing options. As a seller, you\u2019re also more likely to receive multiple offers, allowing you to pass up those with risky contingencies.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, when your home sparks a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-to-handle-a-bidding-war-on-house\/\">bidding war<\/a>, effectively driving up the price of your home higher than market value, you need to watch out for buyers\u2019 appraisal contingencies. If the home <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/money\/personalfinance\/2015\/04\/04\/home-appraisal-sales-price\/70547304\/\">appraises for less than the winning buyer\u2019s offer<\/a>, you may need to adjust the deal accordingly.<\/p>\n<h3>Unsteady economy: Financing contingencies break deals due to unexpected job losses<\/h3>\n<p>When the economy dips, contingent offers are more likely to fall through. Buyers who unexpectedly lose income may fail to qualify for a loan, walking away from the deal via financing contingency. Likewise, buyers with home sale contingencies may lose their buyer from the same cause, or themselves may decide against moving until the economy improves.<\/p>\n<p>Donnelly confirms that more contingent offers fell through in her market than usual in the past few months due to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2020\/06\/09\/hispanic-women-immigrants-young-adults-those-with-less-education-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-job-losses\/\">pandemic related job losses<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was a really nice young couple who I had been showing houses to for a while. We found the perfect home, we wrote the offer, and I mean honestly, it was literally the next day that they closed their business \u2014 she owns a gym. So they canceled their offer on an $800,000 home.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Donnelly\u2019s client was one of nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ocregister.com\/2020\/04\/03\/coronavirus-crimps-home-sales-as-agents-grapple-with-new-realities\/\">11,700 transactions that fell out of escrow<\/a> in March 2020 in neighboring Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17522\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17522\" style=\"width: 700px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"666\" height=\"381\" src=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-666x381.png\" class=\"attachment-content size-content\" alt=\"A person typing a contingency into an offer.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-666x381.png 666w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-64x37.png 64w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-128x73.png 128w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-192x110.png 192w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-432x247.png 432w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer-500x286.png 500w, https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-computer.png 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17522\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><\/a> Source: (Fabian Irsara \/ Unsplash)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Hedge the risk of contingencies falling through<\/h2>\n<p>While the market\u2019s movements are out of your hands, you hold power to avoid contingencies or at least to negotiate them in your favor.<\/p>\n<h3>Skip financing contingencies with a cash buyer<\/h3>\n<p>The best way to avoid contingencies? Sell your home to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-to-decide-best-offer-for-house\/\">cash buyer<\/a>. Cash buyers have the funds to pay for your home today, guaranteeing a shorter, more straightforward closing. HomeLight\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/simple\">Simple Sale<\/a> platform is the fastest way to match with a pre-approved cash buyer. Just answer a few questions about your home online, and we\u2019ll connect you to the highest bidding buyer in our network in 48 hours or less.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In real estate, an offer typically doesn\u2019t constitute a done deal. As a seller you want to know: how often do contingent offers fall through, and what are your odds of actually closing?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":17521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[322,341],"tags":[766],"class_list":["post-17512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-logistics","category-closing","tag-what-does-contingent-mean-in-real-estate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Often Do Contingent Offers Fall Through? Breaking Down the Risk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In real estate, an offer typically doesn\u2019t constitute a done deal. 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As a seller you want to know: how often do contingent offers fall through?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HomeLight Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/gohomelight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-06-30T17:38:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-18T16:54:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/how-often-do-contingent-offers-fall-through-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Presley Attardo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@gohomelight\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@gohomelight\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Presley Attardo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How Often Do Contingent Offers Fall Through? 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