{"id":32725,"date":"2022-08-19T17:29:41","date_gmt":"2022-08-20T00:29:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/?p=32725"},"modified":"2024-11-27T09:10:44","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T17:10:44","slug":"the-us-housing-market-has-peaked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/the-us-housing-market-has-peaked\/","title":{"rendered":"4 Signs That the US Housing Market Has Peaked &#8211; and How it Affects You"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>The U.S. housing market is undergoing a rebalancing. Visit\u00a0<a class=\"c-link\" tabindex=\"-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/real-estate-housing-market-shift-resource-hub\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/real-estate-housing-market-shift-resource-hub\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\" aria-describedby=\"sk-tooltip-228\">HomeLight&#8217;s 2022 Housing Trends Hub<\/a>\u00a0for information on how to navigate a shifting market \u2014 whether you&#8217;re a seller, buyer, or homeowner.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>After a two-year real estate boom, the market is showing signs of cooling off.<\/p>\n<p>With home prices and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-mortgage-rates\/\">interest rates<\/a> rising this past year, some buyers have made the decision to put their homebuying dreams on hold \u2014 creating an environment where mortgage demand has reached its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/20\/mortgage-demand-drops-to-lowest-level-in-22-years.html\">lowest level in 22 years<\/a>. Similarly, interest in refinancing has also waned, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/06\/08\/mortgage-demand-falls-to-the-lowest-level-in-22-years.html\">with 75% fewer applications<\/a> in 2022 compared to the previous year.<\/p>\n<p>These factors don\u2019t just impact buyers and homeowners, but sellers, as well. It\u2019s leaving many in the industry wondering: Has the U.S. housing market reached its peak?<\/p>\n<section class=\"building-block bb-type-default bb-agent-quote bg-none\" id=\"bb-1\"><div class=\"body block\"><div class=\"container-fluid\"><div class=\"block-content\">            <blockquote class=\"post-blockquote\">\n                <q><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">People<\/span><b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> need to understand that we\u2019re coming off of the Fed trying to manipulate the market. This isn\u2019t happening due to circumstances, but because they\u2019re trying to regulate the economy on purpose\u2026and that\u2019s really different.<\/span><\/b><\/q>\n                                    <div class=\"contributors\">\n                        <ul class=\"list\">\n                            <li>\n                                <div class=\"inner\">\n                                    <div class=\"opener\">\n                                        <div class=\"avatar\">\n                                                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.homelight.com\/uploads\/agent\/picture\/2800005\/normal_IMG_0239.jpeg\" alt=\"Kathryn Townsend\">\n                                                                                    <\/div>\n                                        <div class=\"info\">\n                                            <strong>Kathryn Townsend<\/strong>\n                                            <span>Real Estate Agent<\/span>\n                                        <\/div>\n                                    <\/div>\n\n                                    <div class=\"contributors-detail-modal\">\n                                        <div class=\"holder\">\n                                            <a href=\"#\" class=\"icon-close close\">\n                                                <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Close<\/span>\n                                            <\/a>\n                                            <div class=\"top\">\n                                                <div class=\"avatar\">\n                                                                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.homelight.com\/uploads\/agent\/picture\/2800005\/normal_IMG_0239.jpeg\" alt=\"Kathryn Townsend\">\n                                                                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <div class=\"info\">\n                                                    <strong>Kathryn Townsend<\/strong>\n                                                                                                            <span>Real Estate Agent at Owner\/Townsend Real Estate<\/span>\n                                                                                                        <div class=\"rating\">\n                                                                                                                    <span>5.0<\/span>\n                                                            <ul class=\"star-list inline-list\">\n                                                                                                                                    <li>\n                                                                        <img decoding=\"async\" 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                                                                                            <\/ul>\n                                                                                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                                            <span class=\"note\">Currently accepting new clients<\/span>\n                                                                                                    <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                            <div class=\"btm\">\n                                                    <ul class=\"exp-list inline-list\">\n                                                                                                                    <li>\n                                                                <span>Years of Experience<\/span>\n                                                                <strong>35<\/strong>\n                                                            <\/li>\n                                                                                                                    <li>\n                                                                <span>Transactions<\/span>\n                                                                <strong>667<\/strong>\n                                                            <\/li>\n                                                                                                                    <li>\n                                                                <span>Average Price Point<\/span>\n                                                                <strong>$375k<\/strong>\n                                                            <\/li>\n                                                                                                                    <li>\n                                                                <span>Single Family Homes<\/span>\n                                                                <strong>465<\/strong>\n                                                            <\/li>\n                                                                                                            <\/ul>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                                                                    <\/div>\n                                    <\/div>\n                                <\/div>\n                            <\/li>\n                        <\/ul>\n                    <\/div>\n                            <\/blockquote>\n        <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<div id=\"section--1\" data-toc-header=\"What does it mean for the US housing market to \u2018peak\u2019?\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>What does it mean for the US housing market to \u2018peak\u2019?<\/h2>\n<p>The most significant sign that a housing market has peaked is when high growth rates start to slow \u2014 beginning a downward trend. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/agents\/kathryn-townsend-me-hl3972579\">Kathryn Townsend<\/a>, a top-performing Maine real estate agent with 31 years of experience, believes that at least in her coastal community, the market reached its peak in March. \u201cIt was insane and I hope we never see that again,\u201d she says. \u201cWe need a more stable market and not the frenzy that it was.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Top economists agree, with <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/05\/27\/housing-market-correction-peak-mark-zandi-moodys-home-prices-outlook\/\">Moody\u2019s Analytics chief economist<\/a> Mark Zandi believing that the market has reached its peak and is now entering a \u201chousing correction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This is something that Townsend actually sees as a positive. \u201cI think home prices will inch downwards until we find a happy medium,\u201d she says. \u201cSeeing things start to stabilize would be best for the market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As of now, this slowdown hasn\u2019t impacted housing prices much, but some experts do believe they could start dropping in some markets \u2014 particularly those where demand was so high that homes became overvalued. It\u2019s something that Townsend expects to happen, as well. \u201cI think prices are going to go down 10% to 15% this year,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p>Others believe that it\u2019s not so much a price drop that we\u2019ll see, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/26\/home-price-growth-slowed-in-may-sp-case-shiller-says.html\">but a decline <\/a>in how quickly house prices grow. So rather than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/05\/31\/homes\/us-home-prices-case-shiller-march\/index.html#:~:text=Home%20prices%20rose%2020.6%25%20in,than%2035%20years%20of%20data.\">the 20% growth<\/a> we saw over the last year, we might see those high rates of growth start to subside.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s important to keep in mind is that although the market is cooling off, there are no indications that we\u2019re in for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.history.com\/news\/2008-financial-crisis-causes\">housing bubble burst that occurred in 2008<\/a>. \u201cPeople need to understand that we\u2019re coming off of the Fed trying to manipulate the market,\u201d Townsend says. \u201cThis isn\u2019t happening due to circumstances, but because they\u2019re trying to regulate the economy on purpose\u2026and that\u2019s really different.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In fact, one of the top differences between today and 2008 is that more of today\u2019s homeowners have the financial stability to afford their mortgages. Rewind 16 years and things looked differently. Predatory lending had surged and homebuyers were lured into mortgages that they were ultimately unable to afford. They also lacked the equity needed to sell those homes once they found themselves struggling to make their mortgage payments.<\/p>\n<p>For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/05\/31\/homes\/us-home-prices-case-shiller-march\/index.html#:~:text=Home%20prices%20rose%2020.6%25%20in,than%2035%20years%20of%20data.\">67% of new mortgages<\/a> went to borrowers with a credit score higher than 760.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"geo-cta widget-cta widget-cta--content     widget-cta--dark widget-cta--dark-blue-gradient\">\n    <div class=\"widget-element--content\">\n        <div class=\"widget-element--content-header\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"homelight logo\" class=\"widget-element--logo\" src=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/wp-content\/themes\/ccprototypev5\/images\/logo-small-cta.png\" width=\"106\" height=\"25\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n        \n                <h3 class=\"cta-headline widget--bold\">How Much Is Your Home Worth Now?<\/h3>\n                        <p>Get a near-instant home value estimate from HomeLight for free. Our tool analyzes the records of recently sold homes near you, your home\u2019s last sale price, and other market trends to provide a preliminary range of value in under two minutes.<\/p>\n        \n                <div class=\"widget-element--buttons\">\n            <a data-type=\"In Content CTA\" href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/simple-home-value\/quiz?#\/qaas=0\/\" class=\"cta-click-track widget-element--button\">Get Estimate<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div id=\"section--2\" data-toc-header=\"What are the signs that the market is cooling off?\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>What are the signs that the market is cooling off?<\/h2>\n<p>There are a few clear indicators that the housing boom is starting to cool as we move through 2022:<\/p>\n<h3>1. Interest rates are on the rise<\/h3>\n<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/interest-rate-hike-75-basis-points-federal-reserve\/\">multiple times this year<\/a> \u2014 issuing the largest hike in nearly 30 years during its June meeting. These interest rates make borrowing more expensive across the board \u2014 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-why-are-mortgage-rates-going-up\/\">have had an impact on mortgage rates<\/a>, as well.<\/p>\n<h3>2. The inventory of available homes is growing<\/h3>\n<p>While there is still more demand for housing than available homes for sale, the gap is shrinking. According to inventory data on Realtor.com, active listings increased by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\">128,200 last month to 747,500<\/a> \u2014 the highest single jump in the site\u2019s database history that goes back to 2016.<\/p>\n<h3>3. New home sales are down<\/h3>\n<p>In April and May 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2022\/07\/09\/housing-market-slowdown-mortgage-rates\/\">new home sales dropped 19%<\/a> \u2014 their lowest level since the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Existing home sales are also down \u2014 declining for the fifth straight month in June 2022.<\/p>\n<h3>4. Home prices are softening<\/h3>\n<p>The days of houses selling for $100k over asking price seem to be ending, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2022\/07\/26\/cooling-housing-market-brings-relief-buyers\/\">more than 10% of sellers<\/a> lowering the sales price on their homes in June 2022.<\/p>\n<p>According to Townsend, these signs aren\u2019t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, she views the cooling market as an \u201carea of opportunity\u201d \u2014 especially for buyers.<\/p>\n<div id=\"section--3\" data-toc-header=\"What does this mean for home sellers?\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>What does this mean for home sellers?<\/h2>\n<p>The real estate market may have peaked, but houses are still in high demand. However, with home prices starting to dip in some areas, sellers will need to adjust their expectations, as they may not get bombarded with attractive offers on day one. They also may need to be a little more realistic when pricing and marketing their home.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf they\u2019re pricing their house right, [sellers] still might get multiple offers at or slightly above asking,\u201d Townsend says.<\/p>\n<p>Sellers should also expect the return of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-inspection-contingency-clause\/\">inspection contingencies<\/a>, which fell by the wayside for much of the last few years. That means that properly cleaning, staging, and making minor repairs is becoming increasingly important again.<\/p>\n<div id=\"section--4\" data-toc-header=\"What does this mean for homebuyers?\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>What does this mean for homebuyers?<\/h2>\n<p>The combination of rapidly rising housing prices and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/protect-yourself-unexpected-mortgage-rate-increases\/\">mortgage rates<\/a> has caused some homebuyers to back out of the market because they\u2019re either getting priced out of homes or they\u2019re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/is-the-real-estate-market-slowing-down\/\">waiting to see if the market stabilizes<\/a>. \u201cThere\u2019s a notion that prices are going to go down, so people are waiting,\u201d Townsend says.<\/p>\n<p>Yet despite the rising costs, which the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-predicts-uncertainty-for-the-housing-market\">National Association of Realtors (NAR)<\/a> calculated is 55% higher than it was a year ago, Townsend believes that buyers are in a better position to buy a home than they were then. \u201cI think there\u2019s an opportunity for people to buy a place right now and not pay a crazy amount for it,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p>Who she\u2019s thinking of, in particular, are those buyers who put in 10 to 15 offers on a home in the last two years and consistently lost out due to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/what-is-a-cash-offer-in-real-estate\/\">all-cash offers<\/a> that were coming in way over asking. \u201cIf you didn\u2019t have cash, you weren\u2019t buying,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBuyers now have the opportunity to go in and buy a house at a much more reasonable price and actually have their offer accepted. They\u2019re also now able to get a building inspection.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These buyers will be paying a higher mortgage rate than they would have paid last year, but Townsend says there are options there to consider, as well. \u201cIf buyers are worried about the rate, they can get a variable rate and refinance later on,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<div id=\"section--5\" data-toc-header=\"What does this mean for homeowners in general?\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>What does this mean for homeowners in general?<\/h2>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/mortgages\/rates\">mortgage rates increase<\/a>, the number of homeowners looking to refinance their homes has dropped. In fact, mortgage data firm Black Knight found that <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/nextadvisor\/mortgages\/mortgage-news\/do-you-qualify-to-save-on-refinance-loan\/\">refinance activity dropped by 80% <\/a>in the first quarter of 2022.<\/p>\n<p>If you can\u2019t reduce your interest rate substantially (many experts suggest a savings <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/nextadvisor\/mortgages\/mortgage-news\/do-you-qualify-to-save-on-refinance-loan\/\">of at least 0.75 points<\/a>), then moving forward with a refinance doesn\u2019t make sense. If taking advantage of their home\u2019s equity to fund major home repairs or pay off debt is the goal, homeowners may want to look into a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/what-is-home-equity\/\">home equity<\/a> loan or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-unlock-home-equity\/\">home equity line of credit<\/a> instead.<\/p>\n<div id=\"section--6\" data-toc-header=\"Remember: A cooling market isn\u2019t the same as a market crash\" data-toc-type=\"head\"><\/div>\n<h2>Remember: A cooling market isn\u2019t the same as a market crash<\/h2>\n<p>Although the last time the real estate market peaked it was followed by a major housing crash, experts agree that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-will-the-housing-market-crash-in-2022\/\">we\u2019re not looking at a repeat of 2008<\/a>. Rather, what we\u2019re experiencing is a return to normalcy after a few very competitive (and otherwise unusual) years in the U.S. real estate market.<\/p>\n<p>So, whether you\u2019re in the market for a new home \u2014 or are looking to sell your current one \u2014 the fact that the market has peaked doesn\u2019t indicate that you\u2019re entering the market at the wrong time. All it means is that you\u2019ll want to make sure you have an experienced real estate agent by your side who can help you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/real-estate-housing-market-shift-resource-hub\/\">navigate the market<\/a> and make the best homebuying or selling decision for you and your family.<\/p>\n<p>HomeLight\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/find-real-estate-agents\">Agent Match<\/a> will help connect you with an experienced buyer\u2019s or seller\u2019s agent in your area.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a buyer concerned about affordability in this changing market, HomeLight\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/how-much-house-can-i-afford\">Home Affordability Calculator<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/down-payment-calculator\">Down Payment Calculator<\/a> can help you better understand your current homebuying power and out-of-pocket costs.<\/p>\n<p>For sellers, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/best-time-to-sell-house\">Best Time to Sell Calculator<\/a> can help you determine whether it\u2019s the best time to sell in your area, and our handy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/net-proceeds-calculator\">Net Proceeds Calculator<\/a> can help you estimate much you might make selling your home.<\/p>\n<p><em>Header Image Source: (E Mens \/ Unsplash)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Has the US housing market finally reached its peak? Here is what experts are seeing \u2014 as well as how it impacts you as a seller, buyer, or homeowner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":316,"featured_media":32727,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[322,334],"tags":[745],"class_list":["post-32725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-logistics","category-news","tag-2022-market-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>4 Signs That the US Housing Market Has Peaked - and How it Affects You<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Has the U.S. housing market finally reached its peak? 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