{"id":34118,"date":"2023-06-09T04:38:06","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T11:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/?p=34118"},"modified":"2026-03-24T23:49:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T06:49:14","slug":"buyer-will-the-housing-market-crash-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.homelight.com\/blog\/buyer-will-the-housing-market-crash-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuyers Are Hoping for a 2023 Market Crash: What Will Really Happen?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Until recently, the housing market had been heating up at a rapid pace \u2014 leading many buyers to find themselves priced out, especially first-timers. If you weren\u2019t able to make a cash offer, offer a large amount over the list price, or waive inspections, you might have grown frustrated. In fact, according to a recent HomeLight survey<\/a>, many buyers are hoping for a housing market crash in 2023. But will it happen?<\/p>\n

After weathering the crash of 2008 and 2009, top real estate agent Kris Shook<\/a> of Tacoma, Washington, shares his opinion: \u201cWe haven\u2019t seen a traditional seasonal market in a long time. Now, we\u2019re just dealing with a traditional, normal seasonal market,\u201d and not a crash.<\/p>\n

If it\u2019s a more normal market, will you be able to finally find an affordable home? Will rising inflation and interest rates lead to a buyer\u2019s market? Let\u2019s cut through the theories and speculation and look more closely at the actual numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \"homelight\n <\/div>\n \n

Step one: Find an agent!<\/h3>\n

Thinking about buying a home in 2023? Connect with a top real estate agent for their expert opinion and to get the ball rolling.<\/p>\n \n

\n Learn More<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
<\/div>\n

Will the housing market crash in 2023?<\/h2>\n

HomeLight recently surveyed over a thousand top real estate agents nationwide to get their read on the upcoming year\u2019s market. To get a sense of the frustration many aspiring buyers are feeling, we asked agents if they\u2019ve heard clients express \u201chope\u201d for a market crash. The results of the HomeLight New Year 2023 Top Agent Insights Survey<\/a> show that over 70% of agents reported clients expressing this sentiment.<\/p>\n

While homebuyers may not seriously wish the U.S. housing market and broader economy ill (a crash would entail a drop in home values of 20%-30%<\/a>) it does indicate just how challenging things have become and the sense of desperation that has grown as affordability roadblocks pile up. Buyers have been looking at inflation, fears of a recession, and rising interest rates, and crossing their fingers for a crash.<\/p>\n

But the answer to: \u201cWill the housing market crash in 2023?\u201d is probably no.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean there won\u2019t be good news for buyers, though. It\u2019s more likely that we\u2019ll have a correction of smaller proportions. HomeLight\u2019s survey found that 45% of top agents are predicting a balanced market in their area in 2023.<\/p>\n

Why? The fundamentals of a true crash aren\u2019t present.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

What causes housing market crashes?<\/h2>\n

There are a few macroeconomic factors that led to past housing marketing crashes.<\/p>\n

Spikes in unemployment<\/h3>\n

Dramatic increases in unemployment can lead to foreclosures, particularly if people don\u2019t have much equity in their homes. Studies have found a clear correlation between housing market downturns and unemployment<\/a>, particularly in areas with strong industry and employer concentrations. By 2010, during and after the last housing market crash, unemployment had risen to 9.6%. The current unemployment rate sits at 3.7%<\/a>, and while it\u2019s projected to grow to 4.3%<\/a> by the end of 2023, that isn\u2019t high enough to contribute to a housing crash.<\/p>\n

Lower demand for housing<\/h3>\n

Lowered demand is another factor that leads to downturns in the housing market. This can be due to unemployment, rising home values that price buyers out of the market, or generational shifts. The housing market goes in cycles as generations need housing for families, or downsize for retirement.<\/p>\n

Mortgage and foreclosure concerns<\/h3>\n

An economic downturn can cause mortgage affordability issues \u2014 leading to foreclosures. Whether it\u2019s a recession or inflation, neither is good for the housing market.<\/p>\n

During inflationary periods, prices are rising and wages can\u2019t keep up. The Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates<\/a>, increasing the cost of borrowing, to curb demand and dampen inflation. But when interest rates are higher, buyers are reluctant to take out a mortgage and pay more for their loan. The Federal Reserve did raise interest rates in 2022, and might raise them again, but interest rates are still at historical lows<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rate trends 1974-2021<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/b><\/td>\nAverage 30-year rate<\/b><\/td>\nYear<\/b><\/td>\nAverage 30-year rate<\/b><\/td>\nYear<\/b><\/td>\nAverage 30-year rate<\/b><\/td>\nYear<\/b><\/td>\nAverage 30-year rate<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1974<\/b><\/td>\n9.19%<\/td>\n1986<\/b><\/td>\n10.19%<\/td>\n1998<\/b><\/td>\n6.94%<\/td>\n2010<\/b><\/td>\n4.69%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1975<\/b><\/td>\n9.05%<\/td>\n1987<\/b><\/td>\n10.21%<\/td>\n1999<\/b><\/td>\n7.44%<\/td>\n2011<\/b><\/td>\n4.45%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1976<\/b><\/td>\n8.87%<\/td>\n1988<\/b><\/td>\n10.34%<\/td>\n2000<\/b><\/td>\n8.05%<\/td>\n2012<\/b><\/td>\n3.66%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1977<\/b><\/td>\n8.85%<\/td>\n1989<\/b><\/td>\n10.32%<\/td>\n2001<\/b><\/td>\n6.97%<\/td>\n2013<\/b><\/td>\n3.98%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978<\/b><\/td>\n9.64%<\/td>\n1990<\/b><\/td>\n10.13%<\/td>\n2002<\/b><\/td>\n6.54%<\/td>\n2014<\/b><\/td>\n4.17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979<\/b><\/td>\n11.20%<\/td>\n1991<\/b><\/td>\n9.25%<\/td>\n2003<\/b><\/td>\n5.83%<\/td>\n2015<\/b><\/td>\n3.85%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980<\/b><\/td>\n13.74%<\/td>\n1992<\/b><\/td>\n8.39%<\/td>\n2004<\/b><\/td>\n5.84%<\/td>\n2016<\/b><\/td>\n3.65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981<\/b><\/td>\n16.63%<\/td>\n1993<\/b><\/td>\n7.31%<\/td>\n2005<\/b><\/td>\n5.87%<\/td>\n2017<\/b><\/td>\n3.99%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982<\/b><\/td>\n16.04%<\/td>\n1994<\/b><\/td>\n8.38%<\/td>\n2006<\/b><\/td>\n6.41%<\/td>\n2018<\/b><\/td>\n4.54%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983<\/b><\/td>\n13.24%<\/td>\n1995<\/b><\/td>\n7.93%<\/td>\n2007<\/b><\/td>\n6.34%<\/td>\n2019<\/b><\/td>\n3.94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984<\/b><\/td>\n13.88%<\/td>\n1996<\/b><\/td>\n7.81%<\/td>\n2008<\/b><\/td>\n6.03%<\/td>\n2020<\/b><\/td>\n3.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1985<\/b><\/td>\n12.43%<\/td>\n1997<\/b><\/td>\n7.60%<\/td>\n2009<\/b><\/td>\n5.04%<\/td>\n2021<\/b><\/td>\n2.96%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/i>Freddie Mac<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

2022 average 30-year mortgage rates<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
January<\/b><\/td>\nFebruary<\/b><\/td>\nMarch<\/b><\/td>\nApril<\/b><\/td>\nMay<\/b><\/td>\nJune<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.45%<\/td>\n3.76%<\/td>\n4.17%<\/td>\n4.98%<\/td>\n5.23%<\/td>\n5.52%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
July<\/b><\/td>\nAugust<\/b><\/td>\nSeptember<\/b><\/td>\nOctober<\/b><\/td>\nNovember<\/b><\/td>\nDecember<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5.41%<\/td>\n5.22%<\/td>\n6.11%<\/td>\n6.90%<\/td>\n6.58%<\/td>\n6.33%<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/i>Freddie Mac<\/i><\/a> (Pending final <\/i>November<\/i><\/a> and <\/i>December<\/i><\/a> averages.)<\/i><\/p>\n

Consumer fears and behaviors<\/h3>\n

If the country is in a recession, a slowdown in economic activity can lead to job cuts. When people are worried about their jobs, they\u2019re not likely to buy a new house.<\/p>\n

Based on one definition<\/a> of a recession \u2014 two consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product (GDP)<\/i> \u2014 some economists and market professionals believe we entered a recession in the summer of 2022<\/a>. However, since GDP grew in the third quarter and is expected to grow more in the fourth quarter of 2022, don\u2019t count on a contraction that could lead to lower housing prices. But prices still could go down, which we\u2019ll address in a moment.<\/p>\n

During 2008 and 2009, Shook says that \u201cwhat caused our issues was related to just how loose guidelines were and how shady a lot of individuals were with stated loans.\u201d He points out that homeowners were taking out equity loans to go on vacations, or buy a boat, and lenders were approving 100% loan-to-value loans. Without any equity left in their homes, and without the income needed to support the mortgage, homeowners went into default.<\/p>\n

While there are some economic indicators that could cool the housing market, they\u2019re unlikely to cause a complete crash. But that doesn\u2019t mean that buyers won\u2019t be completely out of luck in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \"homelight\n <\/div>\n \n

Save thousands when buying a home<\/h3>\n

HomeLight-recommended real estate agents are top-tier negotiators who understand the market data that helps you save as much as possible when buying your dream home.<\/p>\n \n

\n Find a top buyer's agent<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
<\/div>\n

Some good news for homebuyers in 2023<\/h2>\n

Even if the housing market won\u2019t crash in 2023, buyers still have a lot to give them hope.<\/p>\n

Fewer buyers, lower prices<\/h3>\n

\u201cAppreciation plateauing or dipping will be the good news,\u201d says Shook. With higher interest rates dampening demand, there will be fewer buyers in the market to drive up prices. Lower demand typically equals lower prices. U.S. home prices dropped for the third straight month in a row<\/a> in November, and are predicted to decrease 8%-10%<\/a> by August 2023. Some research and investment firms are predicting housing prices could fall as much as 20%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More homes to choose from<\/h3>\n

Low inventory contributed to the past few years\u2019 hot market. Predictions for 2023 vary, with some saying inventory will be flat<\/a>, and others predicting that higher interest rates will lead to an inventory build-up before the Federal Reserve lowers rates. Inventory can also depend on what\u2019s happening in local markets, so you might want to talk to an experienced agent<\/a> with local insight. But over 50% of agents surveyed say that inventory is rising in their area \u2014 which is good news for homebuyers.<\/p>\n

A more balanced, stable market<\/h3>\n

Higher inventory and home prices that aren\u2019t shooting through the roof make it likely you\u2019ll find a more balanced market in 2023<\/a>. Shook says that a year ago, they\u2019d list as a floor value, i.e., the minimum the seller would take, and expect to get above the list price. Today, he says the list price in his market is the ceiling and sellers don\u2019t expect multiple offers significantly over list price.<\/p>\n

Fewer bidding wars<\/h3>\n

Bidding wars have cooled, too. In our insights survey<\/a>, a whopping 83.14% of agents said that bidding wars are on the decline in their market. Even if a house receives multiple offers, it\u2019s not quite the frenzy it was two years ago.<\/p>\n

Less competition from cash offers<\/h3>\n

Buyers who could make cash offers<\/a> also presented challenges to buyers without deep pockets. Sellers often favored a cash offer because it could close quickly and there was no worry about the home appraising for a mortgage. But according to 40.55% of agents, cash offers are flat, and 37.23% say they\u2019re on the decline.<\/p>\n

Reduced contingency risk<\/h3>\n

If you\u2019re a first-time homebuyer, waiving contingencies<\/a> might have understandably made you nervous. Agreeing to forego a home inspection, or the home appraisal contingency, can be scary, but many buyers were waiving contingencies to win a house against multiple offers. The good news is that contingencies are coming back \u2014 76.61% of agents say that buyers are less likely to waive them now.<\/p>\n

In short? All signs point to a more normal buying experience and a market that\u2019s shifting<\/a> the power balance to buyers.<\/p>\n

\n I can\u2019t guarantee it, but the government knows that raising interest rates is affecting and hurting the housing market, but helping curb inflation so we don\u2019t go into a major recession. But they can\u2019t keep interest rates this high for that long as many people are missing out on the dream of home ownership.<\/q>\n <\/blockquote>\n <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n
<\/div>\n

Buying a house in 2023?<\/h2>\n

According to Shook, interest rates can\u2019t stay high forever. As he puts it, \u201cI can\u2019t guarantee it, but the government knows that raising interest rates is affecting and hurting the housing market, but helping curb inflation so we don\u2019t go into a major recession. But they can\u2019t keep interest rates this high for that long as many people are missing out on the dream of home ownership.\u201d<\/p>\n

Multiple experts and analysts think that the Federal Reserve will lower rates<\/a> sometime later in 2023, possibly in time for the mid-summer housing market.<\/p>\n

Shook\u2019s best advice for buyers right now is to be patient. \u201cThe opportunity is going to be there,\u201d he says, \u201cYou\u2019ll find an opportunity for you to take advantage of a certain program, there\u2019s more inventory on the market, and you\u2019re not competing the way we were six to twelve months ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

A top agent<\/a> can help you identify the opportunities, properties, and programs that fit your needs.<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s unlikely the housing market will crash, it will be friendlier to buyers. And that\u2019s news that you can, hopefully, turn into the set of keys to a new home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \"homelight\n <\/div>\n \n

Find a top real estate agent near you<\/h3>\n

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Header Image Source: (Mshake \/ Depositphotos)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Buyers that found themselves priced out of the market the last years are wondering – will the housing market crash in 2023? Find out how likely it is to happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":153,"featured_media":36534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[192,620,697],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-for-buyers","category-buy-house","category-market-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHomebuyers Are Hoping for a 2023 Market Crash: Will It Happen?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Buyers that found themselves priced out of the market are wondering - will the housing market crash in 2023? 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