Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market? What the Latest Data Shows in Early 2026

If you’re thinking about making a move this year, you may be asking a tipping-point question: Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market?

The answer isn’t always simple. Real estate conditions shift based on supply, demand, mortgage rates, and local trends. But new national data released this week shows a clear pattern emerging in early 2026.

Across much of the country, sellers now outnumber buyers by a wide margin, moving market scales in favor of buyers.

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Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? (Who’s in control?)

Recent housing data reported by Redfin shows that there are roughly 44% more home sellers than buyers nationwide — one of the largest gaps recorded in recent years.

To put that into perspective:

• A balanced market typically means the number of buyers and sellers is within about 10% of each other.
• A seller’s market happens when buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%.
• A buyer’s market occurs when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.

With sellers exceeding buyers by more than four times that balanced threshold, today’s national market is leaning decisively toward buyers.

In terms of numbers, the 44% gap reported in January represents 600,314 more sellers than buyers, up from 30% more a year ago. It’s also the second-largest spread in records dating back to 2013.

This doesn’t mean every neighborhood or metro area looks the same. But on a broad, national level, buyers currently have more leverage than they’ve had in several years.

What’s driving the imbalance

Several forces are contributing to the growing gap between sellers and buyers.

First, affordability remains a challenge. Elevated mortgage rates and high home prices have kept many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Even buyers who want to move are taking longer to commit, which slows demand.

At the same time, more homeowners are choosing to list. Some locked in low mortgage rates years ago and delayed selling during the most competitive pandemic-era frenzy. Now, inventory is gradually increasing.

The result: more homes for sale, fewer active buyers, and longer days on market in many regions.

In prior years, intense competition fueled bidding wars and rapid price growth. Today’s conditions look noticeably different.

How different metros and regions are behaving

While the national trend points toward a buyer’s market, local conditions still vary.

Many Sun Belt and Western metros are seeing softer demand and growing inventory, which gives buyers more room to negotiate. In some of these markets, price reductions have become more common, and sellers are offering concessions such as closing cost assistance or rate buydowns.

Redfin’s January report revealed that the South is currently the strongest buyer’s market.

According to the data, among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, there are only five clear seller’s markets:

1. Newark, New Jersey
2. Nassau County, New York
3. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
4. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania
5. New Brunswick, New Jersey

In a HomeLight study published in January 2026, top agents rated their service areas as either seller’s or buyer’s markets. The Northeast once again stood out as an exception to the rest of the nation, with 58% of top agents in states like Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York reporting seller’s markets.

The takeaway: national headlines tell part of the story, but your local market ultimately determines your strategy.

What this means for buyers

If you’re buying in early 2026, you may find conditions more favorable than they were a year or two ago.

You’re more likely to:

• See a larger selection of homes
• Face fewer bidding wars
• Have time to compare options
• Negotiate on price or terms

That said, affordability always plays a role and always matters. Even in a buyer’s market, mortgage rates and monthly payment costs remain significant factors. Buyers should get pre-approved early and understand their full budget before making offers.

Mortgage payment calculator

To get a rough idea of what your monthly payment might look like if you make a move in 2026, try our mortgage payment calculator below.

What this means for sellers

For sellers, today’s housing market calls for careful preparation and — above all — realistic pricing. In fact, in a separate HomeLight survey, real estate agents nationwide said overpricing is the biggest mistake home sellers are making in today’s environment.

When buyers have more choices, overpriced homes tend to sit unsold. Strategic pricing, strong listing photos, and thoughtful, agent-assisted presentation can make the difference between attracting immediate interest and waiting weeks for showings.

Sellers may also need to:

• Be open to negotiations
• Consider buyer concessions
• Respond quickly to feedback
• Monitor local competition closely

While it’s not the ultra-competitive seller’s market of recent years, well-prepared homes with sellers willing to be flexible can still sell reasonably fast, especially when guided by strong local expertise.

Home sale net proceeds calculator

To get a preliminary snapshot of what your sale proceeds might look like if you list a home in 2026, try our net proceeds calculator below.

Connect with a Top Agent

Regardless of market conditions and whether you’re buying or selling a home, working with a top real estate agent can be key to achieving your goals.

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The bottom line: Partner with an expert to conquer any market

So, is it a buyer’s or seller’s market?

Nationally, the most recent data clearly suggests it’s leaning toward a buyer’s market in early 2026, with significantly more sellers than buyers active across the U.S.

But real estate is always local. In some areas, like the Northeast, competition remains strong. In other regions, such as the South Atlantic, buyers are gaining the upper hand.

If you’re planning a move this year, HomeLight can connect you with a trusted, top-rated real estate agent who can customize your sale or purchase to fit local market conditions. Our free Agent Match platform analyzes over 27 million transactions and thousands of reviews to determine which agent is best for you based on your needs.

To learn more, visit our home seller and homebuyer resource centers, where you can search almost any real estate topic and learn valuable tips and insights.

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